2012 Beef O'Brady's Bowl Preview

Date: December 21, 2012 7:30 PM ET
Stadium: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida
Payout: $537,500 per team
Played: 2008-present
Former Names: St. Petersburg Bowl (2008-2009)
Broadcasters: Dave Neal, Andre Ware, Desmond Howard
Sideline Reporter: Cara Capuano

UCF: Two of UCF's four losses came at the hands of Tulsa. The first meeting ended in a 23-21 defeat while the second was an overtime loss in the Conference USA Championship game that cost them a trip to the Liberty Bowl. The Knights' only other losses were to Ohio State and Missouri. The Knights are playing just 100 miles from home as they look to get the program's second bowl victory and have a 10-win season for the fourth time in Knights' football history.    

Ball State: The Cardinals finished the season with 6 straight wins. Ball State can credit their best season since 2008 to a rush attack that ranked 23rd nationally. Sophomore Jahwan Edwards and freshman Horactio Banks have combined for 1906 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. Ball State is winless in five previous bowl appearances. The Cardinals look to get their first bowl win ever in Pete Lembo's second season as head coach.

	Central Florida			Ball State
Overall Record	9-4		Overall Record	9-3
Conference Record	7-1		Conference Record	6-2
Bowl Record	1-3		Bowl Record	0-5
Last Bowl Win	2010 Liberty		Last Bowl Win	N/A

All Time Series: 2-1 Central Florida
Line: Central Florida by 7

Helmet Stickers: Week 1

ACC—Maryland laid waste to Miami on Monday night in fashion, sporting new uniforms based off of the Maryland state flag. Maryland took a 26-24 lead with 1:39 left in the game via a field goal. With Miami driving, Maryland defensive back Cameron Chism picked off Miami’s Stephen Morris on fourth down and ran 54 yards for a touchdown to put the game out of reach with less than forty ticks left on the clock. Maryland sophomore quarterback Danny O’Brien passed for 348 yards. Maryland avenged its 20-26 loss to the Hurricanes last year. Terrapin football is back.

Big 10—Northwestern picked up a quality win over Boston College Saturday in their opener. With Dan Persa still injured from a ruptured Achilles tendon, sophomore quarterback Kain Colter stepped up and played well. Colter completed 70.8% of passes on 24 attempts. The Eagles drove into the red zone looking to tie the game at 24 in the final minutes of the game, but senior defensive lineman Vince Browne came up with a sack on the final play to end the game.

Big 12—The Baylor Bears got the best of last year’s Rose Bowl winner in a shootout. TCU’s streak of 25-straight regular-season victories came to an end as the Bears beat a ranked opponent for the first time since 2004. A field goal from Aaron Jones with 1:04 left in the game sealed the 50-48 win after the Horned Frogs came roaring back scoring 25 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to take a 48-47 lead. Bears quarterback Robert Griffin III was phenomenal, passing for 359 yards and five touchdowns. After one week of play, Robert Griffin III looks to be a legitimate Heisman candidate.

Big East—South Florida upset No. 16 Notre Dame in South Bend in a game that had two rain delays. The South Florida defense forced two fumbles and made three interceptions to win the turnover battle 5-0. USF cornerback Kayvon Webster recovered a Notre Dame fumble and ran 96 yards for a touchdown to set the tone of the game just four minutes in. Despite gaining half the yardage that Notre Dame did, the Bulls played smarter football, exploiting the Irish’s mistakes and weaknesses.

C-USA—Case Keenum started his sixth season on the Houston Cougars with a quality 38-34 win over UCLA. Keenum threw for 310 yards, and wide out Tyron Carrier had 10 grabs for 138 yards. Houston’s victory avenges a loss last season to the Bruins and has moved Kevin Sumlin’s stock up as Rick Neuheisel’s stock drops.

MAC—In a game featuring the debuts of two new head coaches, Ball State came out on top of Indiana 27-20 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Cardinals quarterback Keith Wenning was efficient, going 23 for 29 with two touchdowns and no interceptions. Ball State rushed for 210 yards and controlled the rock for the majority of the second half. Ball State punter Scott Kovanda averaged 44.3 yards on three punts. The Cardinals have won their last two meetings against the Hoosiers.

MWC—The Broncos defeated Georgia 35-21 in Atlanta Saturday night. Boise State has taken down yet another BCS conference school and got its first victory over a SEC school. Broncos quarterback Kellen Moore went 28 for 34 passing, connecting with nine different targets. No. 5 Boise State looks to off to another great season and another BCS bowl game.

Pac-12—California picked up a solid win over Fresno State. It was the first time Cal beat Fresno State in three meetings. Cal quarterback Zach Maynard and wide receiver Keenan Allen are half-brothers. They connected for 112 yards through the air. The Golden Bears defense picked up 4 sacks. Despite 11 penalties, the Golden Bears were 7 yards short of doubling the Bulldogs’ modest 210 yards of total offense.

SEC— Two top 5 teams faced off on the opening weekend of college football, and LSU came out the winner over a stacked Oregon team 40-27. With starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson suspended because of a preseason brawl, backup Jarrett Lee did enough to lead the Tigers to victory. Oregon turned the ball over four times and the Tigers took advantage of the breaks, converting three Oregon fumbles into three touchdowns. LSU’s running backs Spencer Ware and Michael Ford outplayed Oregon’s star-studded tailbacks. LSU has won 34 straight nonconference games, the longest such streak in the nation.

Sun Belt—The Golden Panthers went to 1-0 in Sun Belt play after beating North Texas in their opener. FIU scored 28 points in the first quarter, a record for the program. Senior wide receiver had 283 all-purpose yards from receptions, rushes, punt returns, and kickoffs. Running backs Dariet Perry and Kedrick Rhodes each ran for two touchdowns. The Golden Panthers look to be a contender for the Sun Belt title.

WAC—Hawaii was the only WAC team to win in Week 1. The Warriors ran over Colorado 34-17 behind good quarterback play from senior signal-caller Bryant Moniz. Moniz, known as a passing quarterback, unleashed another dimension to his game by running for 121 yards in the opener, more yards than he rushed for all of last season. Hawaii cornerback Mike Edwards averaged 35.5 yards on two kickoff returns. Hawaii is the frontrunner to win the WAC this season.

Independents—In its first game since leaving the Mountain West Conference, BYU defeated Ole Miss in a close game by a score of 14-13. The Cougars trailed by a score of 0-13 in the fourth quarter. Wide receiver Ross Apo pulled in a touchdown catch with 9:52 left. With 5:09 left the Cougars defense forced Ole Miss’s quarterback to fumble, and linebacker Kyle Van Noy jumped on top of the ball in the end zone to give BYU a one point lead and the eventual win.

Firings and Resignations Critique, Part 1

Tim Brewster   15-30 (6-21)

Minnesota

Fired 10/17/10

Firing Brewster was the right decision. His conference record was .222 and nonconference record was .500. His marquee loss was to the South Dakota Coyotes during Week 2 of the 2010 season. Brewster was able to get Minnesota to the Insight Bowl twice (2008, 2009) during his 3 ½ years, but both games ended in losses. Minnesota is a tough assignment but not a place where it’s impossible to win and recruit. The university has a new stadium, is located in a large metro area, has no in-state competition for recruits, and has a large alumni base. With hard work, strong leadership, and some luck, the Golden Gophers could find their way into the Top 25 in the next few years.

Todd Dodge   6-37 (3-23)

North Texas

Fired 10/20/10

When Dodge took over the program at North Texas, the program was coming off of two dismal seasons. Dodge never was able to make much improvement only winning 3 conference games in his 3 ½ years at North Texas. The Mean Green never finished better than 2-10 under his direction. During the 2010 season, North Texas was plagued heavily by injuries early in the season and never had a chance to rebound. The Mean Green had ten starters injured (nine season-ending) after their third game. Dodge has proven to be an elite high school coach, but the high school level and college level are two different beasts.

Dan Hawkins   19-39 (10-27)

Colorado

Fired 11/9/10

Dan Hawkins tenure started out rotten and ended rotten. In his first game as head coach, the Buffs lost to FCS Montana State. He was never able to guide the program to a better-than-.500 season. Hawkins had a .074 winning percentage in games not played at Folsom Field or Invesco Field at Mile High. The last straw was on November 6^th when Colorado blew a 28 point lead in the fourth quarter over Kansas. The Jayhawks won 52-45. This was the biggest meltdown in the history of Buffaloes football. The writing was on the wall that Dan Hawkins could not bring Colorado back to its 1990 glory days. The university should have taken out the trash after the 2009 season.

Doug Martin   29-53 (21-35)

Kent State

Resigned 11/21/10

Doug Martin resigned after seven seasons leading the Golden Flashes. A 29-53 may look bad on paper, but when considering the support the football program gets from the university and the fact that Martin has the best winning percentage at Kent State since Glen Mason coached the Golden Flashes in 1986 and 1987, Martin was doing a pretty good job with the resources he had. The football team shares a weight room with all of the other athletic teams. Kent State’s football program has the smallest recruiting budget in the MAC. Doug Martin was the lowest-paid head coach out of all FBS programs in 2010. Martin’s best record in his seven seasons was 6-6 in 2006. Consider that four of Doug Martin’s seven seasons had five wins. Since 1972, the Golden Flashes have won five games in a season just 12 times. I’m not sure Darrell Hazell will be able to do much better at one of the toughest coaching assignments in the FBS.

Stan Parrish   6-19 (5-11)

Ball State

Fired 11/22/10

Stan Parrish was rightfully fired after going 6-19 as head coach at Ball State. Parrish was Brady Hoke’s offensive coordinator before taking over as head coach when Brady Hoke darted to San Diego State. After Ball State’s amazing 12-2 2008 season, the Cardinals fell back to below average for Parrish’s two full seasons at the helm. The Cardinals went from double digits wins to double digit losses between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. While the job in Muncie is not an easy one, the Cardinals laid some eggs under Parrish: losing to a FCS school in 2009 and 2010, losing to an Eastern Michigan team that was on an 18-game losing streak.

Robbie Caldwell   2-10 (1-7)

Vanderbilt         

Resigned 11/27/10

Vanderbilt head coach Bobby Johnson retired less than two months before the 2010 season, and the Commodores needed a head coach that knew the program ASAP. Robbie Caldwell was thrown into the fire. Caldwell went 2-10 like Johnson did in 2009. He decided to not stay. Perhaps, Caldwell could have had some success in the long term, but Vanderbilt made it clear they needed to get a flashy name to start some buzz in Commodore football again and turn the page on the Bobby Johnson. Vanderbilt is the toughest place to build a winning program in the SEC. It is likely Ron Franklin will not be able to do much better than Caldwell, but at least fresh leadership will attract recruits and reinvigorate the fan base.

Randy Shannon   28-22 (16-16)

Miami

Fired 11/27/10

Randy Shannon did not meet the high expectations that University of Miami has for its football team. The last five head coaches winning percentages at Miami were: .800 (Coker), .718 (Davis), .875 (Erickson), .852 (Johnson), and .719 (Schnellenberger). Randy Shannon’s: .560. Add to that the fact that the Hurricanes never won their division or a bowl game in Shannon’s four years. Four of the previous five Miami head coaches won national championships. Losing to Florida State, 45-17, falling to South Florida, 23-20 in overtime, and a loss to a rebuilding Virginia team made getting rid of Shannon necessary. However, Shannon did get players to attend classes and stay out of trouble. The moniker Thug U was nonexistent during the Shannon years. While Shannon did not have the winning percentage or resume of his predecessors, he bled Miami green and orange and acted like a father figure to many of his players. Miami has lost ground to other programs in recent years and Al Golden, a hire from outside the program, may not be the answer.

FBS Attendance

An institution classified in Football Bowl Subdivision shall meet all the Division I membership

requirements set forth in NCAA Division I Bylaws 20.9.1 through 20.9.5 and in addition, shall:

1. Sponsor a minimum of 16 varsity intercollegiate sports, including football, based on the

minimum sports sponsorship and scheduling requirements set forth in Bylaw 20.

Sponsorship shall include a minimum six sports involving all male teams or mixed teams

(males and females), and a minimum of eight varsity intercollegiate teams involving all

female teams. Institutions may use up to two emerging sports to satisfy the required eight

varsity intercollegiate sports involving all female teams. [Bylaw 20.9.7.1]

2. Schedule and play at least 60 percent of its football contests against members of Football

Bowl Subdivision. Institutions shall schedule and play at least five regular season home

contests against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. [Bylaw 20.9.7.2]

3. Average at least 15,000 in actual or paid attendance for all home football contests over a

rolling two-year period. [Bylaw 20.9.7.3]

4. Provide an average of at least 90 percent of the permissible maximum number of overall

football grants-in-aid per year over a rolling two-year period. [Bylaw 20.9.7.4-(a)]

5. Annually offer a minimum of 200 athletics grants-in-aid or expend at least four million

dollars on grants-in-aid to student-athletes in athletics programs. [Bylaw 20.9.7.4-(b)]

This means that the home game attendance at any given FBS school from any two consecutive years should average at least 15,000 fans. Six MAC programs, two WAC programs, and two Sun Belt programs have failed to meet the home attendance requirement over the past two seasons.

School	2009	2010	Average
San Jose State	14,474	15,344	14,909
Buffalo	12,981	15,960	14,471
Western Kentucky	14,577	14,103	14,340
Akron	10,185	17,382	13,784
Bowling Green	13,306	14,044	13,675
Miami (OH)	15,519	11,810	13,665
Florida International	16,545	10,204	13,375
Idaho	12,730	12,546	12,638
Eastern Michigan	15,885	5,016	10,451
Ball State	8,947	10,888	9,918

Over the 2009-2010 rolling period, ten teams failed to meet the attendance requirement. Over the 2008-2009 rolling period, six teams failed to meet the attendance requirement. The economy is definitely not getting better. Interestingly, five schools--Bowling Green, Miami (OH), Florida International, Idaho, and Eastern Michigan--have failed to meet NCAA bylaw 20.9.7.3 over the 2008-2009 rolling period and the 2009-2010 rolling period. Miami (OH) and Florida International both won bowl games this past season and should draw a bit better next year.

Should more FCS teams be allowed to move up into the Football Bowl Subdivision when 1/12 of the existing teams in the FBS cannot even meet the FBS attendance requirement? It appears the NCAA does not enforce this rule, which makes some sense: demoting schools would cause even more conference chaos and it is demoralizing for an FBS program to be demoted to the Football Championship Division. But still, rules are rules, and it's seen as favoritism when some rules are strictly enforced by NCAA and others are ignored.

Reference

MAC Home Attendance Figures

	Akron			Ball State
InfoCision Stadium			Scheumann Stadium
S4 Syracuse	15,969		S2 SE Missouri State	10,753
S11 Gardner-Webb	10,046		S11 Liberty	9,110
O2 Northern Illinois	12,133		O9 Western Michigan	11,963
O23 Western Michigan	10,073		O16 Eastern Michigan	10,956
N17 Miami (OH)	7,671		N6 Akron	5,377
N26 Buffalo	5,216		N20 Northern Illinois	5,524
AVERAGE	10,185		AVERAGE	8,947
	Bowling Green			Buffalo
Perry Stadium			UB Stadium
S18 Marshall	20,515		S2 Rhode Island	16,273
O2 Buffalo	14,544		S18 UCF	14,312
O23 Kent State	14,279		O23 Temple	13,371
N10 Miami (OH)	12,073		O30 Miami (OH)	12,786
N26 Western Michigan	5,121		N12 Ball State	11,355
			N20 Eastern Michigan	9,786
AVERAGE	13,306		AVERAGE	12,981
	Central Michigan			Eastern Michigan
Kelly/Shorts Stadium			Rynearson Stadium
S2 Hampton	17,311		S4 Army	11,318
O2 Ball State	20,152		S18 Central Michigan	20,348
O16 Miami (OH)	24,761		O2 Ohio	16,753
O30 Bowling Green	17,659		O30 Toledo	25,860
N5 Western Michigan	22,355		N26 Northern Illinois	5,147
AVERAGE	20,448		AVERAGE	15,885
	Kent State			Miami (OH)
Dix Stadium			Yager Stadium
S2 Murray State	16,535		S11 Eastern Michigan	12,857
O9 Akron	24,221		S18 Colorado State	16,691
O30 Ball State	15,468		O2 Kent State	17,666
N6 Temple	15,125		O23 Ohio	17,144
N13 Army	17,222		N23 Temple	13,235
N26 Ohio	8,340
AVERAGE	16,152		AVERAGE	15,519
	Northern Illinois			Ohio
Huskie Stadium			Peden Stadium
S11 North Dakota	18,046		S4 Wofford	22,955
O9 Temple	14,011		S11 Toledo	19,455
O16 Buffalo	21,230		O9 Bowling Green	19,855
O23 Central Michigan	17,042		O16 Akron	21,645
N9 Toledo	18,472		O30 UL-Lafayette	15,255
			N4 Buffalo	15,112
AVERAGE	17,760		AVERAGE	19,046
	Temple			Toledo
Lincoln Financial Field			Glass Bowl
S3 Villanova	32,193		S3 Arizona	25,907
S9 Central Mcihigan	15,152		O2 Wyoming	20,843
S18 Connecticut	18,702		O16 Kent State	20,048
O16 Bowling Green	23,045		O23 Ball State	15,010
O30 Akron	17,563		N17 Bowling Green	22,071
N16 Ohio	16,433		N26 Central Michigan	12,121
AVERAGE	20,515		AVERAGE	19,333
	Western Michigan
Waldo Stadium
S11 Nicholls State	19,327
S18 Toledo	14,216
O2 Idaho	18,508
O30 Northern Illinois	12,578
N13 Eastern Michigan	12,136
N20 Kent State	8,763
AVERAGE	14,255

AVERAGE ATTENDANCE BY SCHOOL

Temple	20,515
Central Michigan	20,448
Toledo	19,333
Ohio	19,046
Northern Illinois	17,760
Kent State	16,152
Eastern Michigan	15,885
Miami (OH)	15,519
Western Michigan	14,255
Bowling Green	13,306
Buffalo	12,981
Akron	10,185
Ball State	8,947